Please allow time for floater to build.
• STORM FLOATER •
E ()
PUBLIC ADVISORY #
FORCE THIRTEEN ,
......
SUMMARY OF INFORMATION
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LOCATION...NEAR ...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...MPH...KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...MB
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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...TROPICAL STORM WATCH...
*CABO SAN LUCAS TO LOS BARRILES
DISCUSSION ----------------------------------- Enrique remains devoid of any deep convection near its center this morning. The system appears to have entrained drier, more stable air into its core, which has suppressed all thunderstorm activity. Overnight scatterometer data revealed winds to 40 kt in the eastern semicircle, but the system has likely weakened since then given its lack of convection. The initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt with this advisory, which is consistent with an objective SATCON estimate and TAFB subjective Dvorak classification. Enrique remains in an environment with fairly low oceanic heat content and some drier mid-level air, and all the reliable intensity models suggest the cyclone will continue weakening. Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast shows Enrique becoming a tropical depression by tomorrow. However, if the system fails to generate any organized convection near its center soon, it could degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low later today or tonight.
LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW National Hurricane Center (East Pacific) $$ Forecaster
• OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST •
• NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST •
