Please allow time for floater to build.
• STORM FLOATER •
W () PUBLIC ADVISORY # FORCE THIRTEEN , ...... SUMMARY OF INFORMATION ----------------------------------- LOCATION...NEAR ... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...MPH...KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...MB WATCHES AND WARNINGS -----------------------------------
DISCUSSION ----------------------------------- TS KOMPASU IS LOCATED AT 18.7N, 125.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS. THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW Japan Meteorological Agency $$ Forecaster
