616. Tropical Depression Joshua » Text ProductsJanuary 24th, 2021 at 08:38 AM

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3 years ago

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   (JOSHUA)
PUBLIC ADVISORY #
FORCE THIRTEEN , 

    
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SUMMARY OF INFORMATION
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LOCATION...NEAR    ...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...MPH...KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...MB
    
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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NO WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION
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THE NORTHWESTERN ALTITUDE SHEAR IS WELL PRESENT AS WELL AS DRY AIR.
THESE TWO FACTORS HAVE OVERCOME THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH JOSHUA
WHICH HAS TOTALLY COLLAPSED DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE LAST ASCAT
SWATH OF 1536UTC STILL PROVIDES WINDS OF 30KT IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST: JOSHUA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE WESTERN EXTREMITY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ON THE
WESTERN PART OF THE AUSTRALIAN BASIN AND WHICH IS SHIFTING WESTWARD
IMPOSING A GLOBAL WEST-SOUTHWEST DIRECTIONAL FLOW. ALL THE GUIDES ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS TRACK WHICH SHOULD EVOLVE LITTLE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE SHEAR ALREADY PRESENT IN ALTITUDE WILL ALSO INCREASE IN THE
AVERAGE TROPOSPHERE. THUS, THE DRY AIR ALREADY PRESENT IN THE WESTERN
SECTOR WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESSIVELY ERODE THE HOT CORE AND WEAKEN
THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN EVOLVE QUITE RAPIDLY IN DEPRESSION
DISSIPATING.=

LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW
Bureau of Meteorology
    
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Forecaster