• STORM FLOATER •
TROPICAL STORM 14E (ISELLE) PUBLIC ADVISORY #4 FORCE THIRTEEN SINGAPORE, SINGAPORE 1340 UTC SAT AUG 29 2020 ...ISELLE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOON... SUMMARY OF 1200 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------- LOCATION...NEAR 19.9 N 114.8 W... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45MPH...70KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001MB WATCHES AND WARNINGS ----------------------------------- NO WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION ----------------------------------- Iselle has become less organized during the past several hours. The low-level center is exposed to the east of a decaying and disheveled area of deep convection. An ASCAT-B overpass from around 0430 UTC showed maximum winds in the 40-45 kt range, but since the system's appearance has degraded since that time, the initial intensity is set at 40 kt. This value is also in agreement with an average of the latest satellite intensity estimates, which range from 33 to 45 kt. Iselle is feeling the effects of about 25 kt of easterly vertical wind shear. Since the shear is expected to remain strong while Iselle heads for cooler waters and a drier air mass, steady weakening is anticipated. Iselle will likely become a tropical depression by tonight and a remnant low on Sunday. Most of the models show the remnant low dissipating in 3 days, and so does the official forecast.
LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW National Hurricane Center (East Pacific) NEXT FULL ADVISORY AT AUGUST 29 2020, 1500 UTC. $$ Forecaster Harvey
• OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST •
• NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST •
