• STORM FLOATER •
S (ELOISE) PUBLIC ADVISORY # FORCE THIRTEEN , ...... SUMMARY OF INFORMATION ----------------------------------- LOCATION...NEAR ... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...MPH...KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...MB WATCHES AND WARNINGS ----------------------------------- Please refer to Meteo Madagascar and Mozambique Meteorological Services for up to date latest warnings.
DISCUSSION ----------------------------------- THE EYE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ELOISE MADE LANDFALL AROUND 01Z ON THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE ABOUT 30 KM SOUTH OF BEIRA AND OF THE PUNGWE RIVER ESTUARY, IN THE BAY OF SOFALA, WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 80 KT AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE CLOSE TO 967 HPA. THE SYNOPTIC STATION OF BEIRA, CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN EYEWALL, MEASURED A NORTHEASTERLY GUST OF 130 KM/H AT 01Z. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK MOVING ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. FROM MONDAY, THE REMNANTS OF ELOISE SHOULD DRIFT WESTWARD, UNDER THE ACTION OF A NEW RIDGE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST. ELOISE WILL NOW GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER LAND. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS NEAR THE CENTER BEFORE COLLAPSING IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING IN FAVOR OF MORE SPORADIC RAINSTORM ACTIVITY FARTHER AWAY FROM THE RESIDUAL CENTER. IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, ELOISE IS ABOUT TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BEIRA REGION AND WILL AFFECT MAINLY BY A RISK OF HEAVY RAINS SEVERAL SOUTHERN AFRICAN COUNTRIES DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS: - WINDS GUSTING TO 100/120 KM/H WILL REACH THE REGIONS IN THE LANDS LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTH OF THE TRACK. ON SUNDAY, STRONG WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 90-100 KM/H MAY ACCOMPANY THE RAINSTORM EPISODES DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION, THUS MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN SOUTH AFRICA. - DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ORDER OF 50 TO 100 MM IS EXPECTED AT THE LEVEL OF THE IMPACT ZONE. THE HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH ELOISE WILL ALSO REACH THE INTERIOR OF THE COUNTRY: RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 100 TO 150 MM IN 24 HOURS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK AS WELL AS ON THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS NEAR THE BORDER ZONE BETWEEN MOZAMBIQUE AND ZIMBABWE. ON SUNDAY, THE ELOISE RAINS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN ZIMBABWE, NORTHERN SOUTH AFRICA AND EASTERN BOTSWANA, WITH CUMULATIVE RAINFALL OF AROUND 50 TO 100 MM/24H LOCALLY 150 MM. MEANWHILE, RAINS OF THE SAME MAGNITUDE WILL ALSO SPREAD SOUTHWARDS OVER SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE AND SWAZILAND. THE INHABITANTS OF MOZAMBIQUE AND OF THE COUNTRIES CONCERNED BY THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINS IN THE FOLLOWING DAYS ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES.=
LOCAL AND OFFICIAL SOURCES BELOW MeteoFrance La Reunion $$ Forecaster
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